19h ago
Without broader markets shitting the bed, there are a confluence of factors lining up that should make between here and 100k BTC a decent opportunity for a bounce.
I am not buying before price responds, but they are a bit more evidenced now.
Between Market Structure, skew extremes, the OI wipe, sentiment, the 50 SMA on the weekly, and ETF selling days where we were multiples of the average for Blackrock.
That being said, if 100k gives way, a slide into the low-80s is on the table.
A big cohort already sees this as confirming the 4-year cycle, and in momentum-driven markets people react late, so any deeper break could turn reflexive as that narrative gets priced in all at once.
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